Match Analysis

WalesvsPortugal

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

6%
15%
79%
Wales winDrawPortugal win

Key Stats

0.60Points per game2.40
0.52Avg goals scored2.29
1.24Avg goals conceded1.03
1–0–4Record (W–D–L)4–0–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

0.5

Wales xG

Expected goals

2.3

Portugal xG

35%

Both Teams to Score

53%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

0–2

16%

0–1

14%

0–3

12%

1–2

8%

0–4

7%

1–1

7%

Home

Wales

Wales

LWLLL

PPG

0.60

Avg goals

0.5 / 1.2

Last 5

1W 0D 4L

Away

Portugal

Portugal

WWWWL

PPG

2.40

Avg goals

2.3 / 1.0

Last 5

4W 0D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Wales vs Portugal?

Portugal is favored with a 79% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Wales's current form?

Wales have recorded 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 matches (0.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.5.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 0–2 (16% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Wales Win6%
Draw15%
Portugal Win79%
BTTS35%
Over 2.553%