Match Analysis

LuxembourgvsBulgaria

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

18%
33%
49%
Luxembourg winDrawBulgaria win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game0.60
0.46Avg goals scored0.77
1.75Avg goals conceded1.23
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)0–3–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

0.5

Luxembourg xG

Expected goals

1.1

Bulgaria xG

26%

Both Teams to Score

22%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

0–1

22%

0–0

20%

0–2

12%

1–1

11%

1–0

10%

1–2

6%

Home

Luxembourg

Luxembourg

DLLWW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

0.5 / 1.8

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Bulgaria

Bulgaria

DLDLD

PPG

0.60

Avg goals

0.8 / 1.2

Last 5

0W 3D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?

Bulgaria is favored with a 49% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Luxembourg's current form?

Luxembourg have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.5.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (22% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 26%. Over 2.5 goals: 22%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Luxembourg Win18%
Draw33%
Bulgaria Win49%
BTTS26%
Over 2.522%