Match Analysis

ItalyvsTürkiye

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

92%
5%
3%
Italy winDrawTürkiye win

Key Stats

2.00Points per game0.60
2.04Avg goals scored0.51
1.23Avg goals conceded2.78
3–1–1Record (W–D–L)1–0–4

Score Forecast

Poisson model

4

Italy xG

Expected goals

0.5

Türkiye xG

39%

Both Teams to Score

83%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

3–0

12%

4–0

12%

2–0

9%

5–0

9%

3–1

6%

4–1

6%

Home

Italy

Italy

WDWLW

PPG

2.00

Avg goals

2.0 / 1.2

Last 5

3W 1D 1L

Away

Türkiye

Türkiye

LLLLW

PPG

0.60

Avg goals

0.5 / 2.8

Last 5

1W 0D 4L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Italy vs Türkiye?

Italy is favored with a 92% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Italy's current form?

Italy have recorded 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 4.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 3–0 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Italy Win92%
Draw5%
Türkiye Win3%
BTTS39%
Over 2.583%