Match Analysis

ItalyvsBelgium

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

60%
18%
22%
Italy winDrawBelgium win

Key Stats

2.00Points per game1.20
2.04Avg goals scored1.50
1.23Avg goals conceded1.33
3–1–1Record (W–D–L)2–0–3

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.5

Italy xG

Expected goals

1.5

Belgium xG

71%

Both Teams to Score

76%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

2–1

9%

1–1

7%

3–1

7%

2–0

6%

2–2

6%

1–0

5%

Home

Italy

Italy

WDWLW

PPG

2.00

Avg goals

2.0 / 1.2

Last 5

3W 1D 1L

Away

Belgium

Belgium

LWLWL

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

1.5 / 1.3

Last 5

2W 0D 3L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Italy vs Belgium?

Italy is favored with a 60% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Italy's current form?

Italy have recorded 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.5.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (9% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Italy Win60%
Draw18%
Belgium Win22%
BTTS71%
Over 2.576%