Match Analysis

IcelandvsLuxembourg

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

88%
9%
3%
Iceland winDrawLuxembourg win

Key Stats

1.60Points per game1.40
1.73Avg goals scored0.46
0.23Avg goals conceded1.75
2–2–1Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.8

Iceland xG

Expected goals

0.3

Luxembourg xG

24%

Both Teams to Score

60%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

2–0

18%

3–0

16%

1–0

13%

4–0

12%

5–0

6%

0–0

5%

Home

Iceland

Iceland

DWWDL

PPG

1.60

Avg goals

1.7 / 0.2

Last 5

2W 2D 1L

Away

Luxembourg

Luxembourg

DLLWW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

0.5 / 1.8

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Iceland vs Luxembourg?

Iceland is favored with a 88% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Iceland's current form?

Iceland have recorded 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.8.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–0 (18% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 24%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Iceland Win88%
Draw9%
Luxembourg Win3%
BTTS24%
Over 2.560%