Match Analysis

IcelandvsBulgaria

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

78%
17%
5%
Iceland winDrawBulgaria win

Key Stats

1.60Points per game0.60
1.73Avg goals scored0.77
0.23Avg goals conceded1.23
2–2–1Record (W–D–L)0–3–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2

Iceland xG

Expected goals

0.3

Bulgaria xG

22%

Both Teams to Score

40%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–0

20%

2–0

20%

3–0

13%

0–0

10%

4–0

7%

1–1

6%

Home

Iceland

Iceland

DWWDL

PPG

1.60

Avg goals

1.7 / 0.2

Last 5

2W 2D 1L

Away

Bulgaria

Bulgaria

DLDLD

PPG

0.60

Avg goals

0.8 / 1.2

Last 5

0W 3D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Iceland vs Bulgaria?

Iceland is favored with a 78% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Iceland's current form?

Iceland have recorded 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (20% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 22%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Iceland Win78%
Draw17%
Bulgaria Win5%
BTTS22%
Over 2.540%