Match Analysis

EstoniavsLuxembourg

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

45%
42%
13%
Estonia winDrawLuxembourg win

Key Stats

1.20Points per game1.40
0.48Avg goals scored0.46
0.23Avg goals conceded1.76
1–3–1Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

0.8

Estonia xG

Expected goals

0.3

Luxembourg xG

14%

Both Teams to Score

10%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

0–0

33%

1–0

27%

2–0

11%

0–1

10%

1–1

8%

2–1

3%

Home

Estonia

Estonia

DWDDL

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

0.5 / 0.2

Last 5

1W 3D 1L

Away

Luxembourg

Luxembourg

DLLWW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

0.5 / 1.8

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Estonia vs Luxembourg?

Estonia is favored with a 45% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Estonia's current form?

Estonia have recorded 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.8.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 0–0 (33% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 14%. Over 2.5 goals: 10%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Estonia Win45%
Draw42%
Luxembourg Win13%
BTTS14%
Over 2.510%