Match Analysis

CroatiavsSpain

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

6%
8%
86%
Croatia winDrawSpain win

Key Stats

0.80Points per game2.60
0.97Avg goals scored2.97
3.54Avg goals conceded1.23
1–1–3Record (W–D–L)4–1–0

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.1

Croatia xG

Expected goals

4

Spain xG

65%

Both Teams to Score

88%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

0–3

7%

0–4

7%

1–3

7%

1–4

7%

1–5

6%

0–2

5%

Home

Croatia

Croatia

DLLWL

PPG

0.80

Avg goals

1.0 / 3.5

Last 5

1W 1D 3L

Away

Spain

Spain

DWWWW

PPG

2.60

Avg goals

3.0 / 1.2

Last 5

4W 1D 0L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Croatia vs Spain?

Spain is favored with a 86% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Croatia's current form?

Croatia have recorded 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 matches (0.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.1.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 0–3 (7% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 88%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Croatia Win6%
Draw8%
Spain Win86%
BTTS65%
Over 2.588%