Match Analysis

BulgariavsLuxembourg

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

57%
30%
13%
Bulgaria winDrawLuxembourg win

Key Stats

0.60Points per game1.40
0.77Avg goals scored0.46
1.23Avg goals conceded1.75
0–3–2Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.3

Bulgaria xG

Expected goals

0.5

Luxembourg xG

29%

Both Teams to Score

27%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–0

21%

0–0

17%

2–0

14%

1–1

11%

0–1

8%

2–1

7%

Home

Bulgaria

Bulgaria

DLDLD

PPG

0.60

Avg goals

0.8 / 1.2

Last 5

0W 3D 2L

Away

Luxembourg

Luxembourg

DLLWW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

0.5 / 1.8

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?

Bulgaria is favored with a 57% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Bulgaria's current form?

Bulgaria have recorded 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 matches (0.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.3.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (21% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 29%. Over 2.5 goals: 27%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Bulgaria Win57%
Draw30%
Luxembourg Win13%
BTTS29%
Over 2.527%