Match Analysis

BulgariavsEstonia

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

17%
52%
31%
Bulgaria winDrawEstonia win

Key Stats

0.60Points per game1.20
0.77Avg goals scored0.49
1.23Avg goals conceded0.23
0–3–2Record (W–D–L)1–3–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

0.3

Bulgaria xG

Expected goals

0.5

Estonia xG

10%

Both Teams to Score

5%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

0–0

45%

0–1

22%

1–0

13%

1–1

7%

0–2

6%

1–2

2%

Home

Bulgaria

Bulgaria

DLDLD

PPG

0.60

Avg goals

0.8 / 1.2

Last 5

0W 3D 2L

Away

Estonia

Estonia

DWDDL

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

0.5 / 0.2

Last 5

1W 3D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Bulgaria vs Estonia?

Estonia is favored with a 31% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Bulgaria's current form?

Bulgaria have recorded 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 matches (0.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.3.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 0–0 (45% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 10%. Over 2.5 goals: 5%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Bulgaria Win17%
Draw52%
Estonia Win31%
BTTS10%
Over 2.55%