Match Analysis

BelgiumvsItaly

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

31%
20%
49%
Belgium winDrawItaly win

Key Stats

1.20Points per game2.00
1.50Avg goals scored2.04
1.33Avg goals conceded1.23
2–0–3Record (W–D–L)3–1–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.7

Belgium xG

Expected goals

2.2

Italy xG

73%

Both Teams to Score

75%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

8%

1–2

8%

2–2

7%

1–3

6%

2–1

6%

0–2

5%

Home

Belgium

Belgium

LWLWL

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

1.5 / 1.3

Last 5

2W 0D 3L

Away

Italy

Italy

WDWLW

PPG

2.00

Avg goals

2.0 / 1.2

Last 5

3W 1D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Belgium vs Italy?

Italy is favored with a 49% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Belgium's current form?

Belgium have recorded 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 matches (1.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.7.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Belgium Win31%
Draw20%
Italy Win49%
BTTS73%
Over 2.575%