Match Analysis

AC MilanvsLecce

ITA Serie A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

85%
11%
4%
AC Milan winDrawLecce win

Key Stats

1.20Points per game0.80
1.78Avg goals scored0.98
0.85Avg goals conceded2.07
1–3–1Record (W–D–L)1–1–3

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.9

AC Milan xG

Expected goals

0.6

Lecce xG

43%

Both Teams to Score

68%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

2–0

13%

3–0

12%

1–0

9%

4–0

9%

2–1

8%

3–1

7%

Home

AC Milan

AC Milan

DWLDD

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

1.8 / 0.9

Last 5

1W 3D 1L

Away

Lecce

Lecce

DLWLL

PPG

0.80

Avg goals

1.0 / 2.1

Last 5

1W 1D 3L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win AC Milan vs Lecce?

AC Milan is favored with a 85% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is AC Milan's current form?

AC Milan have recorded 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.9.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–0 (13% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

AC Milan Win85%
Draw11%
Lecce Win4%
BTTS43%
Over 2.568%