Match Analysis

AC MilanvsAtalanta

ITA Serie A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

63%
21%
16%
AC Milan winDrawAtalanta win

Key Stats

1.20Points per game0.80
1.78Avg goals scored1.46
0.85Avg goals conceded1.36
1–3–1Record (W–D–L)1–1–3

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.9

AC Milan xG

Expected goals

0.9

Atalanta xG

50%

Both Teams to Score

53%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–0

12%

2–0

11%

1–1

10%

2–1

10%

3–0

7%

0–0

6%

Home

AC Milan

AC Milan

DWLDD

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

1.8 / 0.8

Last 5

1W 3D 1L

Away

Atalanta

Atalanta

DLLLW

PPG

0.80

Avg goals

1.5 / 1.4

Last 5

1W 1D 3L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win AC Milan vs Atalanta?

AC Milan is favored with a 63% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is AC Milan's current form?

AC Milan have recorded 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.9.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

AC Milan Win63%
Draw21%
Atalanta Win16%
BTTS50%
Over 2.553%