Manchester Cityvs
Leeds United
ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model2.1
Manchester City xG
Expected goals
1
Leeds United xG
55%
Both Teams to Score
60%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
2–0
10%
2–1
10%
1–0
9%
1–1
9%
3–0
7%
3–1
7%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $51K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Manchester City
PPG
2.00
Avg goals
2.8 / 1.1
Last 5
3W 1D 1L
Away
Leeds United
PPG
1.00
Avg goals
1.3 / 1.0
Last 5
1W 2D 2L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Manchester City vs Leeds United?
Manchester City is favored with a 64% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Manchester City's current form?
Manchester City have recorded 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.1.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 2–0 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
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