Manchester Cityvs
Chelsea
ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model4
Manchester City xG
Expected goals
1.4
Chelsea xG
74%
Both Teams to Score
91%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
3–1
7%
4–1
7%
2–1
5%
3–0
5%
3–2
5%
4–0
5%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $55K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Manchester City
PPG
2.60
Avg goals
2.8 / 0.8
Last 5
4W 1D 0L
Away
Chelsea
PPG
1.00
Avg goals
2.6 / 2.1
Last 5
1W 2D 2L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Manchester City vs Chelsea?
Manchester City is favored with a 81% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Manchester City's current form?
Manchester City have recorded 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 matches (2.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 4.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 3–1 (7% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 91%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
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