Match Analysis

Chelsea vs Afc Bournemouth

ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

50%
32%
18%
Chelsea winDrawAFC Bournemouth win

Key Stats

1.80Points per game1.20
2.27Avg goals scored1.11
1.88Avg goals conceded1.24
3–0–2Record (W–D–L)1–3–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.2

Chelsea xG

Expected goals

1.4

AFC Bournemouth xG

67%

Both Teams to Score

70%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

21

9%

11

8%

20

7%

31

7%

10

6%

12

6%

Home

Chelsea

Chelsea

WWLWL

PPG

1.80

Avg goals

2.3 / 1.9

Last 5

3W 0D 2L

Away

AFC Bournemouth

AFC Bournemouth

DLDDW

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

1.1 / 1.2

Last 5

1W 3D 1L

Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings

Chelseaall timeAfc Bournemouth
2W
4D
30 Dec 25
Chelsea22AFC Bournemouth
6 Dec 25
AFC Bournemouth00Chelsea
14 Jan 25
Chelsea22AFC Bournemouth
14 Sep 24
AFC Bournemouth01Chelsea
19 May 24
Chelsea21AFC Bournemouth
17 Sep 23
AFC Bournemouth00Chelsea

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Chelsea vs Afc Bournemouth?

Chelsea is favored with a 50% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Chelsea's current form?

Chelsea have recorded 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.2.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 6 Premier League meetings, Chelsea won 2, drew 4, and Afc Bournemouth won 0.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (9% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

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Match Odds

Chelsea Win50%
Draw32%
AFC Bournemouth Win18%
BTTS67%
Over 2.570%

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