Match Analysis

ArsenalvsManchester City

ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

21%
23%
56%
Arsenal winDrawManchester City win

Key Stats

2.00Points per game2.60
1.61Avg goals scored2.76
0.96Avg goals conceded0.80
3–1–1Record (W–D–L)4–1–0

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1

Arsenal xG

Expected goals

1.8

Manchester City xG

53%

Both Teams to Score

53%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

0–1

11%

1–1

11%

0–2

10%

1–2

10%

0–0

6%

0–3

6%

Home

Arsenal

Arsenal

DWLWW

PPG

2.00

Avg goals

1.6 / 1.0

Last 5

3W 1D 1L

Away

Manchester City

Manchester City

DWWWW

PPG

2.60

Avg goals

2.8 / 0.8

Last 5

4W 1D 0L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Arsenal vs Manchester City?

Manchester City is favored with a 56% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Arsenal's current form?

Arsenal have recorded 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (11% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Arsenal Win21%
Draw23%
Manchester City Win56%
BTTS53%
Over 2.553%