Match Analysis

MarseillevsToulouse

FRA Ligue 1 · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

52%
19%
29%
Marseille winDrawToulouse win

Key Stats

0.80Points per game1.20
2.27Avg goals scored1.97
1.41Avg goals conceded1.44
1–1–3Record (W–D–L)1–3–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.5

Marseille xG

Expected goals

1.8

Toulouse xG

77%

Both Teams to Score

80%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

2–1

8%

2–2

7%

1–1

6%

3–1

6%

3–2

6%

1–2

5%

Home

Marseille

Marseille

DLWLL

PPG

0.80

Avg goals

2.3 / 1.4

Last 5

1W 1D 3L

Away

Toulouse

Toulouse

DDWDL

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

2.0 / 1.4

Last 5

1W 3D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Marseille vs Toulouse?

Marseille is favored with a 52% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Marseille's current form?

Marseille have recorded 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 matches (0.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.5.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 77%. Over 2.5 goals: 80%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Marseille Win52%
Draw19%
Toulouse Win29%
BTTS77%
Over 2.580%