Match Analysis

MarseillevsParis Saint-Germain

FRA Ligue 1 · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

33%
24%
43%
Marseille winDrawParis Saint-Germain win

Key Stats

0.20Points per game2.60
1.46Avg goals scored1.95
1.23Avg goals conceded1.22
0–1–4Record (W–D–L)4–1–0

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.4

Marseille xG

Expected goals

1.7

Paris Saint-Germain xG

62%

Both Teams to Score

60%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

11%

1–2

9%

0–1

8%

2–1

8%

0–2

7%

1–0

6%

Home

Marseille

Marseille

DLLLL

PPG

0.20

Avg goals

1.5 / 1.2

Last 5

0W 1D 4L

Away

Paris Saint-Germain

Paris Saint-Germain

DWWWW

PPG

2.60

Avg goals

2.0 / 1.2

Last 5

4W 1D 0L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain?

Paris Saint-Germain is favored with a 43% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Marseille's current form?

Marseille have recorded 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 matches (0.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.4.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Marseille Win33%
Draw24%
Paris Saint-Germain Win43%
BTTS62%
Over 2.560%