Match Analysis

LensvsMarseille

FRA Ligue 1 · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

41%
23%
36%
Lens winDrawMarseille win

Key Stats

1.60Points per game0.80
1.74Avg goals scored1.46
1.60Avg goals conceded1.23
2–2–1Record (W–D–L)1–1–3

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.7

Lens xG

Expected goals

1.6

Marseille xG

65%

Both Teams to Score

64%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

10%

2–1

9%

1–2

8%

2–2

7%

0–1

6%

1–0

6%

Home

Lens

Lens

DWLDW

PPG

1.60

Avg goals

1.7 / 1.6

Last 5

2W 2D 1L

Away

Marseille

Marseille

DWLLL

PPG

0.80

Avg goals

1.5 / 1.2

Last 5

1W 1D 3L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Lens vs Marseille?

Lens is favored with a 41% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Lens's current form?

Lens have recorded 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.7.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Lens Win41%
Draw23%
Marseille Win36%
BTTS65%
Over 2.564%