Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model2.4
Real Madrid xG
Expected goals
0.8
Villarreal xG
50%
Both Teams to Score
62%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
2–0
12%
1–0
10%
2–1
9%
3–0
9%
1–1
8%
3–1
8%
Home
Real Madrid
PPG
2.00
Avg goals
2.5 / 1.0
Last 5
3W 1D 1L
Away
Villarreal
PPG
2.00
Avg goals
1.3 / 1.2
Last 5
3W 1D 1L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
Real Madrid is favored with a 72% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Real Madrid's current form?
Real Madrid have recorded 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.4.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 2–0 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
More from La Liga