Match Analysis

MálagavsVillarreal

ESP La Liga · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

15%
25%
60%
Málaga winDrawVillarreal win

Key Stats

0.60Points per game1.40
0.56Avg goals scored1.55
1.55Avg goals conceded1.53
0–3–2Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

0.6

Málaga xG

Expected goals

1.6

Villarreal xG

36%

Both Teams to Score

38%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

0–1

18%

0–2

14%

0–0

11%

1–1

11%

1–2

9%

0–3

8%

Home

Málaga

Málaga

DLLDD

PPG

0.60

Avg goals

0.6 / 1.5

Last 5

0W 3D 2L

Away

Villarreal

Villarreal

DLWWL

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.5 / 1.5

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Málaga vs Villarreal?

Villarreal is favored with a 60% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Málaga's current form?

Málaga have recorded 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 matches (0.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.6.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (18% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Málaga Win15%
Draw25%
Villarreal Win60%
BTTS36%
Over 2.538%