Match Analysis

BarcelonavsVillarreal

ESP La Liga · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

89%
7%
4%
Barcelona winDrawVillarreal win

Key Stats

2.60Points per game1.40
4.17Avg goals scored1.55
0.86Avg goals conceded1.53
4–1–0Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

4

Barcelona xG

Expected goals

0.9

Villarreal xG

58%

Both Teams to Score

87%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

3–0

8%

4–0

8%

3–1

7%

4–1

7%

2–0

6%

5–0

6%

Home

Barcelona

Barcelona

DWWWW

PPG

2.60

Avg goals

4.2 / 0.9

Last 5

4W 1D 0L

Away

Villarreal

Villarreal

DLWWL

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.5 / 1.5

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Barcelona vs Villarreal?

Barcelona is favored with a 89% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Barcelona's current form?

Barcelona have recorded 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 matches (2.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 4.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 3–0 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 87%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Barcelona Win89%
Draw7%
Villarreal Win4%
BTTS58%
Over 2.587%