Match Analysis

AlavésvsAtlético Madrid

ESP La Liga · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

22%
24%
54%
Alavés winDrawAtlético Madrid win

Key Stats

1.00Points per game2.60
1.35Avg goals scored2.27
1.12Avg goals conceded0.97
1–2–2Record (W–D–L)4–1–0

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1

Alavés xG

Expected goals

1.7

Atlético Madrid xG

52%

Both Teams to Score

51%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

0–1

11%

1–1

11%

0–2

10%

1–2

10%

0–0

7%

1–0

7%

Home

Alavés

Alavés

DDLLW

PPG

1.00

Avg goals

1.3 / 1.1

Last 5

1W 2D 2L

Away

Atlético Madrid

Atlético Madrid

DWWWW

PPG

2.60

Avg goals

2.3 / 1.0

Last 5

4W 1D 0L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Alavés vs Atlético Madrid?

Atlético Madrid is favored with a 54% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Alavés's current form?

Alavés have recorded 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (11% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Alavés Win22%
Draw24%
Atlético Madrid Win54%
BTTS52%
Over 2.551%