Match Analysis

ChinavsTajikistan

FIFA International Friendly · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

20%
24%
56%
China winDrawTajikistan win

Key Stats

0.80Points per game1.40
0.68Avg goals scored1.03
2.28Avg goals conceded1.61
1–1–3Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

0.9

China xG

Expected goals

1.7

Tajikistan xG

49%

Both Teams to Score

48%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

0–1

13%

0–2

11%

1–1

11%

1–2

10%

0–0

7%

1–0

7%

Home

China

China

LLLWD

PPG

0.80

Avg goals

0.7 / 2.3

Last 5

1W 1D 3L

Away

Tajikistan

Tajikistan

WLLDW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.0 / 1.6

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win China vs Tajikistan?

Tajikistan is favored with a 56% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is China's current form?

China have recorded 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 matches (0.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.9.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (13% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

China Win20%
Draw24%
Tajikistan Win56%
BTTS49%
Over 2.548%