Paris Saint-Germainvs
Barcelona
UCL Champions League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model2.7
Paris Saint-Germain xG
Expected goals
3.5
Barcelona xG
90%
Both Teams to Score
95%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
2–2
5%
2–3
5%
2–4
5%
3–3
5%
1–3
4%
3–2
4%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $95K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Paris Saint-Germain
PPG
2.60
Avg goals
4.7 / 1.6
Last 5
4W 1D 0L
Away
Barcelona
PPG
2.60
Avg goals
4.4 / 1.0
Last 5
4W 1D 0L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Paris Saint-Germain vs Barcelona?
Barcelona is favored with a 55% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Paris Saint-Germain's current form?
Paris Saint-Germain have recorded 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 matches (2.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.7.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 2–2 (5% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 90%. Over 2.5 goals: 95%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
More from Champions League