Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model2.8
Mainz xG
Expected goals
3.6
Bayer Leverkusen xG
91%
Both Teams to Score
95%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
2–3
5%
2–4
5%
3–3
5%
1–3
4%
2–2
4%
3–2
4%
Home
Mainz
PPG
1.60
Avg goals
2.7 / 2.4
Last 5
2W 2D 1L
Away
Bayer Leverkusen
PPG
2.60
Avg goals
2.9 / 1.7
Last 5
4W 1D 0L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen is favored with a 55% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Mainz's current form?
Mainz have recorded 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.8.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 2–3 (5% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 91%. Over 2.5 goals: 95%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
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