Match Analysis

GrêmiovsBahia

BRA Brazilian Série A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

24%
27%
49%
Grêmio winDrawBahia win

Key Stats

0.60Points per game1.40
0.98Avg goals scored1.40
1.34Avg goals conceded1.03
0–3–2Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

0.9

Grêmio xG

Expected goals

1.4

Bahia xG

45%

Both Teams to Score

40%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

0–1

14%

1–1

13%

0–0

10%

0–2

10%

1–0

9%

1–2

9%

Home

Grêmio

Grêmio

DDDLL

PPG

0.60

Avg goals

1.0 / 1.3

Last 5

0W 3D 2L

Away

Bahia

Bahia

DLLWW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.4 / 1.0

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Grêmio vs Bahia?

Bahia is favored with a 49% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Grêmio's current form?

Grêmio have recorded 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 matches (0.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.9.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (14% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Grêmio Win24%
Draw27%
Bahia Win49%
BTTS45%
Over 2.540%