Match Analysis

ChapecoensevsFluminense

BRA Brazilian Série A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

7%
11%
82%
Chapecoense winDrawFluminense win

Key Stats

1.00Points per game1.40
0.98Avg goals scored1.82
2.40Avg goals conceded1.13
1–2–2Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1

Chapecoense xG

Expected goals

3.3

Fluminense xG

61%

Both Teams to Score

80%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

0–3

8%

1–3

8%

0–2

7%

0–4

7%

1–2

7%

1–4

7%

Home

Chapecoense

Chapecoense

DLDLW

PPG

1.00

Avg goals

1.0 / 2.4

Last 5

1W 2D 2L

Away

Fluminense

Fluminense

DLWWL

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.8 / 1.1

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Chapecoense vs Fluminense?

Fluminense is favored with a 82% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Chapecoense's current form?

Chapecoense have recorded 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 0–3 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 80%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Chapecoense Win7%
Draw11%
Fluminense Win82%
BTTS61%
Over 2.580%