Match Analysis

ChapecoensevsCruzeiro

BRA Brazilian Série A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

10%
12%
78%
Chapecoense winDrawCruzeiro win

Key Stats

1.00Points per game2.00
0.98Avg goals scored1.94
2.40Avg goals conceded1.54
1–2–2Record (W–D–L)3–1–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.3

Chapecoense xG

Expected goals

3.5

Cruzeiro xG

71%

Both Teams to Score

86%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–3

8%

1–2

7%

1–4

7%

0–3

6%

0–2

5%

0–4

5%

Home

Chapecoense

Chapecoense

DLDLW

PPG

1.00

Avg goals

1.0 / 2.4

Last 5

1W 2D 2L

Away

Cruzeiro

Cruzeiro

DWWLW

PPG

2.00

Avg goals

1.9 / 1.5

Last 5

3W 1D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro?

Cruzeiro is favored with a 78% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Chapecoense's current form?

Chapecoense have recorded 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.3.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–3 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 86%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Chapecoense Win10%
Draw12%
Cruzeiro Win78%
BTTS71%
Over 2.586%