Match Analysis

BahiavsSão Paulo

BRA Brazilian Série A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

38%
30%
32%
Bahia winDrawSão Paulo win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game1.40
1.19Avg goals scored1.00
1.32Avg goals conceded1.08
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.1

Bahia xG

Expected goals

1

São Paulo xG

42%

Both Teams to Score

35%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–0

13%

1–1

13%

0–0

12%

0–1

12%

1–2

7%

2–0

7%

Home

Bahia

Bahia

DWLLW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.2 / 1.3

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

São Paulo

São Paulo

DWLLW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.0 / 1.1

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Bahia vs São Paulo?

Bahia is favored with a 38% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Bahia's current form?

Bahia have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.1.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (13% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Bahia Win38%
Draw30%
São Paulo Win32%
BTTS42%
Over 2.535%