Match Analysis

BahiavsAtlético-MG

BRA Brazilian Série A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

36%
27%
37%
Bahia winDrawAtlético-MG win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game1.80
1.40Avg goals scored1.60
1.03Avg goals conceded1.02
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)2–3–0

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.2

Bahia xG

Expected goals

1.2

Atlético-MG xG

49%

Both Teams to Score

43%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

13%

0–1

11%

1–0

11%

0–0

9%

1–2

8%

2–1

8%

Home

Bahia

Bahia

DLLWW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.4 / 1.0

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Atlético-MG

Atlético-MG

DWDWD

PPG

1.80

Avg goals

1.6 / 1.0

Last 5

2W 3D 0L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Bahia vs Atlético-MG?

Atlético-MG is favored with a 37% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Bahia's current form?

Bahia have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.2.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (13% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Bahia Win36%
Draw27%
Atlético-MG Win37%
BTTS49%
Over 2.543%