Match Analysis

Atlético-MGvsVasco da Gama

BRA Brazilian Série A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

43%
27%
30%
Atlético-MG winDrawVasco da Gama win

Key Stats

1.80Points per game2.20
1.60Avg goals scored1.40
1.02Avg goals conceded0.97
2–3–0Record (W–D–L)3–2–0

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.3

Atlético-MG xG

Expected goals

1.1

Vasco da Gama xG

49%

Both Teams to Score

43%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

13%

1–0

12%

0–1

10%

0–0

9%

2–0

8%

2–1

8%

Home

Atlético-MG

Atlético-MG

DWDWD

PPG

1.80

Avg goals

1.6 / 1.0

Last 5

2W 3D 0L

Away

Vasco da Gama

Vasco da Gama

DDWWW

PPG

2.20

Avg goals

1.4 / 1.0

Last 5

3W 2D 0L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Atlético-MG vs Vasco da Gama?

Atlético-MG is favored with a 43% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Atlético-MG's current form?

Atlético-MG have recorded 2W 3D 0L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.3.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (13% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Atlético-MG Win43%
Draw27%
Vasco da Gama Win30%
BTTS49%
Over 2.543%