Match Analysis

Atlético-MGvsChapecoense

BRA Brazilian Série A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

85%
10%
5%
Atlético-MG winDrawChapecoense win

Key Stats

1.80Points per game1.00
1.60Avg goals scored0.98
1.02Avg goals conceded2.40
2–3–0Record (W–D–L)1–2–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

3.3

Atlético-MG xG

Expected goals

0.8

Chapecoense xG

53%

Both Teams to Score

78%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

3–0

10%

2–0

9%

3–1

8%

4–0

8%

2–1

7%

4–1

7%

Home

Atlético-MG

Atlético-MG

DWDWD

PPG

1.80

Avg goals

1.6 / 1.0

Last 5

2W 3D 0L

Away

Chapecoense

Chapecoense

DLDLW

PPG

1.00

Avg goals

1.0 / 2.4

Last 5

1W 2D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Atlético-MG vs Chapecoense?

Atlético-MG is favored with a 85% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Atlético-MG's current form?

Atlético-MG have recorded 2W 3D 0L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 3.3.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 3–0 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Atlético-MG Win85%
Draw10%
Chapecoense Win5%
BTTS53%
Over 2.578%