Match Analysis

Athletico-PRvsAtlético-MG

BRA Brazilian Série A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

42%
21%
37%
Athletico-PR winDrawAtlético-MG win

Key Stats

1.20Points per game1.80
2.32Avg goals scored1.60
1.60Avg goals conceded1.02
1–3–1Record (W–D–L)2–3–0

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2

Athletico-PR xG

Expected goals

1.9

Atlético-MG xG

74%

Both Teams to Score

75%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

8%

2–1

8%

1–2

7%

2–2

7%

1–3

5%

2–3

5%

Home

Athletico-PR

Athletico-PR

DDWDL

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

2.3 / 1.6

Last 5

1W 3D 1L

Away

Atlético-MG

Atlético-MG

DWDWD

PPG

1.80

Avg goals

1.6 / 1.0

Last 5

2W 3D 0L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Athletico-PR vs Atlético-MG?

Athletico-PR is favored with a 42% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Athletico-PR's current form?

Athletico-PR have recorded 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Athletico-PR Win42%
Draw21%
Atlético-MG Win37%
BTTS74%
Over 2.575%